South Florida Market Pulse — September 2026

List prices & inventory from active MLS listings (snapshot 2026-06-24). Closed figures are the trailing 90 days of residential sales.

Where the Market Stands Right Now

Here's an honest read on the tri-county market (Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach) using the latest numbers we have in hand—no spin.

Median list prices are sitting at $705,000 for single-family homes, $439,000 for townhouses, and $329,000 for condos. Those are asking prices. What buyers and sellers actually agreed on tells a slightly different story: the median closed price over the last 90 days was $495,000, at a median of $311 per square foot.

Two numbers are worth watching together. There are 50,291 active listings on the market, and 19,581 sales closed in the past 90 days. That's a healthy amount of choice for buyers. At the same time, the median sale came in at 96.7% of the asking price—so well-priced homes are still trading close to list, while overpriced ones are the listings that sit.

What This Means If You're Buying or Selling

• Buyers: With inventory this deep, you have room to be selective and negotiate. The gap between list prices and the median closed price shows that the headline asking numbers are a starting point, not a ceiling on your leverage.
• Sellers: That 96.7% sale-to-list figure rewards realistic pricing out of the gate. Homes priced to the market move; homes priced to hope become part of the 50,291.

The Rental Picture

On the rental side, the median asking rent is $4,399 for a single-family home and $2,800 for a condo. That spread is a big part of why condos remain the entry point for many renters and investors alike—the monthly math is simply more accessible.

The Migration Story: Fewer Residents, More Income

This is the most important—and most misunderstood—trend in South Florida right now, so let's be precise about the source. These figures come from IRS tax-return migration data for the {irs_migration_period} period. IRS data is always released on a lag, so it describes moves from a couple of years ago, not last month. It's the most reliable county-level income-and-migration data available, but read it as a trend, not a live feed.

Across the tri-county area, 136,306 households moved in during that period, and the region gained a net of +$3.83B in adjusted gross income.

Here's the twist worth sitting with: Miami-Dade and Broward each lost residents on a net basis over this period, yet the region's net income still climbed sharply. Miami-Dade saw a net income gain of +$484m even while net population fell, and Broward added +$332m in net income under the same pattern. Palm Beach carried the income story hardest with +$3.02B in net income. (The full county-by-county breakdown appears in the migration table on this page.)

What That Actually Means in Plain English

When an area loses people but gains income, it means the households arriving are earning more, on average, than the households leaving. Higher earners are effectively replacing lower earners in the local economy.

For prices and rents, that matters more than raw headcount:

• Prices: A smaller number of higher-income households can support—and compete for—more expensive homes. That's a floor under home values even when population growth cools, which helps explain why prices haven't softened the way a shrinking-population headline might suggest.
• Rents: The same income shift keeps upward pressure on rents, especially at the single-family level where that $4,399 median lives. Households with more income can absorb higher housing costs, and the market prices accordingly.
• Investors: This is the signal to watch. Population counts alone would tell you to worry; the income data tells you demand at the higher end of the market has been reinforced, not eroded. The condo-versus-single-family rent spread is where that plays out in real cash flow.

The Bottom Line

South Florida is a market of deep inventory and disciplined pricing, layered on top of an income base that has been strengthening even as raw population shifts. That combination favors prepared buyers who can negotiate, sellers who price to the real market, and investors who read income trends rather than just headlines.

Every neighborhood inside Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach tells its own version of this story, and the right move depends on your specific goals. Call The Neuman Group at 954-228-5001 for a free, no-pressure consult, and we'll walk through what these numbers mean for your address, your budget, and your timeline.

Who is moving in — and the money they bring

Migration & income: IRS county-to-county migration data, tax years 2022–2023 (most recent released). “Net income moved in” = total adjusted gross income of arrivers minus leavers.