PCE Inflation Report for August 2026: What to Watch

A new inflation report comes out on Wednesday, September 30, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. It is called Personal Income and Outlays, and it is put out by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Inside that report is one number that matters more than most: the PCE price index. PCE stands for Personal Consumption Expenditures, which is just a measure of what prices are doing across the things people buy.

Why should you care? Because the Federal Reserve, the group that sets the direction for interest rates in the country, says this is the inflation number it watches most. When this number moves, expectations for interest rates move. And when those move, mortgage rates here in South Florida move too.

What this report actually measures

The PCE price index tracks the prices of things people buy: food, gas, rent, health care, and much more. When the index goes up a lot, that means prices are rising fast. When it barely moves, that means prices are close to steady.

You will also hear about core PCE. Core just means they take out food and gas prices, because those two jump around a lot from month to month. Core PCE gives a calmer view of where prices are really heading.

The index is set against a starting point of 100. A reading above 100 means prices are higher than they were at that starting point. The higher the number climbs, the more prices have gone up over time.

What the charts show right now

The chart above shows the price index at 131.7 for July 2026. The month before, it was 131.5. So from one month to the next, it was about the same. Prices did not jump, and they did not fall.

Zoom out to a year, though, and the picture is different. A year ago the index was 127.0. So over the past year, prices are up. That is the tug-of-war the Fed is watching: fairly calm month to month, but still higher than a year ago.

What it means for your mortgage payment

Mortgage rates are not set by this report directly. But they follow what people expect the Fed to do. If this report says prices are cooling, that makes lower rates more likely down the road. If it says prices are heating up, rates can stay high or climb.

Here is why that matters. On a loan of $600,000, even a small change in the rate changes your monthly payment by a real amount. Over 30 years, small differences add up to a lot of money. So a calm inflation number can quietly help buyers, and a hot one can quietly hurt them.

What it means for home prices

When rates are high, monthly payments are higher, so fewer people can afford to buy. That tends to cool demand and hold prices back. When rates ease, buying gets cheaper each month, and more buyers come back into the market. In South Florida, where prices are already high, this push and pull is easy to feel.

What it means for rent

Rent is part of what this report measures. If inflation stays warm, the cost of many things, including housing, tends to keep rising. If it cools, rent increases often slow down too. For an owner renting out a place, softer inflation can mean smaller rent hikes. For a renter, it can mean a little more breathing room.

How to read tomorrow's number

You do not need to guess the exact figure. Just watch the direction. Is the yearly number still climbing, or slowing down? Is the month-to-month change bigger or smaller than last time? Those two clues tell you more than any single decimal point.

Every figure on this page comes straight from FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) — series PCEPI. We publish these before the report lands so you can read the background while it is still quiet, then we add the actual number here the moment it is out.